After surge, initial iPad pre-orders drop sharply

Daniel Tello, a Venezuelan blogger-analyst, has been tracking order numbers submitted by volunteers at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board. While Friday numbers seemed to indicate 25,000 pre-orders per hour, his estimates on pre-orders on Saturday and Sunday show a slowing to about 1,000 per hour.

Tello attributed the spike in Friday orders, estimated to be 120,000, to "pure overexcited fanboyism." He estimated that about half of the pre-orders fall into that category. Although not noted by Tello, it's also likely a decent percentage can be attributed to developers who cannot get access to pre-release devices.

Of course, these numbers are all very speculative and educated guesswork. Tello said:

The real demand for Apple's (AAPL) tablet computer in the weeks before its April 3 release, he says, is probably closer to 30,000 per weekday and half that on weekends.

"With three weeks and two weekends left before they ship, I wouldn't expect much more than half a million in pre-orders and reservations," he says.

"My best guess, although very tentative given the early stage and few data we have so far, would be that they hit the 1 million unit milestone by the second week after it ships," he told Fortune. "But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders."

The wi-fi only version of the iPad is scheduled to reach Apple retail stores on April 3rd, with the 3G model to be shipped in late April. Those who have Saturday delivery, and who opted for the free delivery from Apple's online store, will see the device on April 3rd as well.