Friday, October 08, 2010

Windows Phone will ultimately fail: Gartner

Windows Phone 7 is set to make its global debut on Monday, Oct. 11th. When it actually launches to retail is still TBD. However, while some are high on the new platform, research firm Gartner predicts its impact will be minimal.

According to Information Week, which got a look at the research report, Gartner predicted that while Windows Phone 7 will help Microsoft's mobile market share in the short term, it will ultimately fail. It will, in fact, decline to a point even lower than its current share.
Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft's share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company's share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.
Meanwhile, Gartner said, Symbian, which is much stronger outside the U.S., will barely maintain its global market share lead by 2014, with a 30.2 percent share, trailed closely by Android, which Gartner sees at 29.6 percent by 2014, up from just 3.9 percent in 2009.

Naturally, this is all just the future. However, it is clear that not only has Android surged past Windows Mobile, it's either caught or is catching up to both BlackBerry OS and iOS, depending on the report.

Since Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer saw his fiscal 2010 (ended June 2010) bonus cut in half, due to both the company's mobile woes as well as "new form factors," which we interpret to mean lack of movement in the tablet space, he definitely wants to see both Windows Phone and any upcoming tablets hit the ground running.

While there seems to be interest among manufacturers and media, it's unclear if either initiative will be able to draw consumers from iOS and Android.

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