Do AT&T's iPhone 4 incentives point to a 2011 Verizon iPhone?

AT&T continues to offer iPhone subscribers incentives and promotions. During his WWDC keynote announcing the iPhone 4, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said AT&T would allow anyone with an iPhone contract ending in 2010 to get a iPhone 4 upgrade. Now, there is news that even recent purchasers of the iPhone 3GS be getting a deal.

It won't be quite as good a deal, naturally, as those users should have known better than to buy an old iPhone 3GS just before the June refresh of iPhones. Seriously, however, the price of the new iPhones for those eligible for an update would be $199 (16GB) or $299 (32GB). For those users who purchased an iPhone 3GS between May 7th and June 7th, here are the promotions:

• You can opt to receive a credit to your account of $50 (16GB) or $100 (32GB) if you file a request with the AT&T, with the offer being good for 30 days from the date of purchase of the 3GS. That would mean that those in the earliest portion of the purchase window (May 7th - May 14th) have until June 14th to file their requests.

• The second option is to upgrade to the iPhone 4, paying only the price differences between the new and old. That basically amounts to $200 extra for the privilege, though you have to trade in your iPhone 3GS as well.

Naturally, all of these options require a new two-year service agreement.

What's AT&T getting out of all its generousity? Hopefully, these new promotions will reduce the sort of uproar it gets every year when folks don't understand why they can't get the "new customer" price when they still have a contact and no upgrade eligibility.

Ah, but the reason for allowing those with their contracts expiring anytime in 2010 smacks of a different possibility. The timing is interesting ... all those whose contract end in 2010 get the "new customer" pricing? This sounds like a great deal, until you take into account the rumors of a Verizon iPhone.

There are two popular rumors right now: one is that AT&T has iPhone exclusivity until 2012. The other is that their exclusivity ends at the end of this year. If the latter were the case, the moves make incredible sense. If those users whose contracts end in 2010 sign up, that means AT&T locks them in for another two years. With the new ETF's AT&T has instituted, they would be inclined to stay, even with a Verizon iPhone (although AT&T doesn't think there will be mass exodus anyway).

Is all this another clue of a Verizon iPhone in early 2011? We'll see if this prognostication is correct in January.