Analyst Cuts Palm Outlook to Zero

Palm is losing the battle to the iPhone and Android. You might even say it's already lost the war.

Thursday's Palm fiscal Q3 2010 report was dismal. Palm sold just 408,000 Pres and Pixis last quarter.

That number is down 29 percent from the prior quarter. Still worse, it's down 15 percent year-over-year. That fact is bad enough, until you remember that last year during that same quarter, the Pre wasn't even launched, and Palm was making due with PalmOS and Windows Mobile.

The coffin is nailed shut still tighter when one looks at Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Geldblum's estimates. In an investor note today he estimated that Palm's total channel inventory is an "alarming" 1.15 million units. Ouch, big-time.

Finally, the coffin is sealed with SuperGlue when one considers that Canaccord Adams technology analyst Peter Misek has cut his price target for Palm stock. He's cut it all the way to zero, mind you.

"We believe Palm's troubles will only accelerate as carriers and suppliers increasingly question the company's solvency and withdraw their support. With what appears to be roughly 12 months of cash on hand, an accelerating burn rate, a complete lack of earnings visibility, and substantial debt and preferred equity, we no longer see any value in the company's common equity."

Palm made a number of mistakes. With the Treo 600, it owned the smartphone market, but lagged on improving and moving past PalmOS. It aligned itself with Windows Mobile as a stopgap measure, but webOS simply took too long to reach the market.

By the time Palm released it, not only was Apple's iPhone firmly entrenched, it had given Android a long enough period of time for handset makers to ramp up production. Now so many Android handsets are being introduced in different "flavors" that many analysts believe it will someday overtake the iPhone.

Is it time for Palm to look for a buyer? Or is it too late?